Hello,
The NFL draft starts on Thursday.
I toned down the negativity of this blog after reading Bill Barnwell's excellent article at Grantland.com about just how hard it is to consistently draft well in the NFL Draft. From seeing the results of the draft over the last several years it seems that Barnwell is right on. However that being said, the Cowboys drafts under the Jerry Jones regime have been awful. For instance, they no longer have any players from their 2008 and 2009 drafts. The Cowboys are saying that Jason Garrett is in charge of this draft. Not only are the Cowboys going to let Garrett hang himself, but they are giving him the rope to do so.
I'm a big fan of ESPN Dallas, their writers and their commentators. I agree with much of what they say. If you detect a bias that sounds like theirs then you'll understand why. By the way I love Nate Newton. He doesn't drink any of Jerry's kool aid and he absolutely tells it like he sees it. I wish the Cowboys had people like that actually working for them. But Jerry usually likes to surround himself with family and yes men. Don't let the fact that the Cowboys were the most successful when they had Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells, both of whom are anything but yes men.
I'm not going to break down the terrible failures of past Cowboys drafts. I'm going to make a couple of predictions about the Cowboys draft this season. First of all at ESPN Dallas yesterday, there was a picture of Jason Garrett, Stephen Jones and Jerry Jones sitting at a table. I thought to myself when these are the Dallas decision makers no wonder I don't have any confidence in this Cowboys regime.
Jerry Jones loves to hog the spotlight, it's why the Cowboys usually make big trades on Draft Day. So my first prediction is that the Cowboys will trade their #18 pick in the first round. I'd be glad for them to do that, as long as the Cowboys trade down. I predict the Cowboys will do exactly that. Due to their disastrous drafts in the past Dallas needs to get as many quality players as possible.
My second prediction is although the Cowboys need to stock up on offensive linemen, they'll mostly bypass offensive lineman to make more splashy picks. I also predict that the Cowboys will draft at least one of the following three players Manti T'eo, Tyrann Matthieu (The Honey Badger) or Matt Barkley. From Jones past drafts he likes to go with flashy picks over quiet picks, even though many times those quiet picks would better help the Cowboys. I'm convinced Jones is much more interested in looking like a genius than winning.
The Cowboys putting Jason Garrett is in charge of the draft is so very scary, but thankfully this will be his last draft. The Cowboys are going to be mediocre again this season and Jones will finally fire him. However I'm sure that Jones will just hire another yes man to replace him and the Cowboys problems will continue. Again this is why I find my allegiances going more and more over to the 49ers. I prefer to follow well run organizations and the Cowboys are anything but. Actually I expect one season the top heavy Cowboys will implode and crumble in on themselves. That season I expect about a 2-14 record. I'd welcome that as long as the Cowboys finally got someone that knows what they are doing.
Sorry I got sidetracked. The Cowboys would draft either T'eo or Barkley because of their name value. However I doubt that either player will be a great pro. I expect Barkley to be the next Matt Leinart. I'm grateful for the rookie salary cap in the NFL. That will prevent Jones from signing another unworthy player to a 7 year-$119 million dollar contract. The Cowboys would go after The Honey Badger as he's a player they can get at a discount. Going after a player at a discount is another thing that Jones loves to do, although that has bit the Cowboys in the butt so many times. He wants to save money and then if one of these discount players does well Jones hopes it will make him look like a football genius.
The third of my NFL teams is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who finalized a big trade on Sunday. The Bucs have acquired Darelle Revis, the man who's nickname is Revis Island. Why does he have that nickname? Because when he's on the field quarterbacks rarely throw to the player he's covering. Thus he's all alone on his own island. Revis Island is one place you don't want to visit.
Tampa Bay added him to their young and hungry roster, he should make them that much better. I actually think that the Bucs could have a better record than the Cowboys this season. Tampa Bay has a better quarterback, better coach and have had a better offseason.
Revis signed an interesting contract with Tampa Bay, he signed a 6 year- $96 million dollar contract with no guaranteed money. A player of Revis' caliber not getting any guaranteed money is unheard of. To me it suggests that Revis is trying to send a message, he's going to put everything on the line. He'll get $16 million this season, but there's no guarantee beyond that. If Revis is terrible this season the Bucs can cut him outright and not worry about owing him any more money. (Oh how I wish Tony Romo's recent contract also had no guaranteed money in it.) One of Revis's most iconic interceptions is in the Jets-Cowboys 2011 game. Romo threw the ball perfectly right to Revis. That was more a bad play by Romo than a great play by Revis.
Updated April 26th, 2013: Although I'm not 100% sold on the Cowboys drafting Travis Federick I'm glad my prediction was wrong about them not drafting an offensive lineman in the first round. I'm also glad that the Cowboys traded down in the first round. Although that prediction being right has more to do with all the reading that I did more than my own football knowledge. But I could see the value in the Cowboys getting more draft picks.
The Cowboys traded down in the first round, trading with San Francisco. WIth the 49ers having a much better front office I expected the 49ers to do better in the first round than the Cowboys. I didn't realize it was by the 49ers trading with the Cowboys. Many people say the Cowboys were fleeced in this trade. In no shape or form am I a NFL expert, but I was surprised that I had never heard of the Cowboys first round pick Federick. Again many people are saying it was a bad pick, but I'll leave that for time to determine. Jones has long proven he's a terrible GM so nothing surprises me any more. It's also why even though I want Garrett gone, Jones would just hire another puppet to take his place. So does it even matter any more?
Based on how Jones like to draft flashy players I predicted that the Cowboys would end up with Manti Te'o, Matt Barkley or Tyrann Matthieu. As the second round starts later today, all three of those players are still available. I think that both Te'o and Matthieu could be productive pro players but I think the slow footed Barkley is going to be a bust. Just like E.J. Manuel who went to Buffalo. Picks like those are why bad and mediocre teams remain bad and mediocre. It's one of the main reasons why the Cowboys will miss out on the playoffs for the 5th time in 6 years this season. As long as a Jones is in charge in Dallas I don't think there's much hope for the Cowboys.
And although the 49ers reached the Super Bowl, they still have the most picks of any team in the NFL Draft. Picks like those are why the 49ers will be challenging for the Super Bowl for the next few years.
Slowly but surely my allegiances continue to switch to the 49ers. If Dallas was just a bad team but showing signs of progress that's one thing. But the Cowboys are also completely inept, and after 17 years of that that's just too long.
themusicaddict
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