Yesterday the Dodgers signed 29 year old Zack Greinke to a 6 year- $147 million dollar contract. In terms of dollars this is the second costliest contract signed by a pitcher ever. Second only to the $161 million dollar contract that CC Sabathia signed. Recently LA also signed 25 year old Hyun-Jin Ryu to a 6 year-$36 million dollar contract. As of right now the Dodgers payroll will be $225 next April, yes that will be a record. Also yes that will be for just that one season.
Usually I'm very excited when one of my teams signs potentially great players. I love that the current Dodgers ownership isn't scared of spending money, especially after the financially challenged Frank McCourt era, however I can't help but think that the Dodgers might be overdoing it a bit. Below are some of the contracts they've agreed to in just the last few months. Also the Dodgers will want to resign Clayton Kershaw here fairly soon.
From Jayson Stark's December 9th story on espn.com:
• Zack Greinke is about to earn approximately $147 million through 2018.
• Adrian Gonzalez is owed $127 million through 2018.
• Carl Crawford is due $102.5 million through 2017.
• Matt Kemp has $108 million coming through 2019.
• Andre Ethier is owed $85 million through 2017.
From Jonah Keri over at Grantland.com:
SOURCE: ESPN Stats & Info
Again I love how much the Dodgers are willing to spend. However I wish that there was a system in place where a team could have more confidence in getting out of their deal, like the NFL system. With his contract, Greinke is going to get $147 no matter how he performs. He could win 120 games or he could win 10 games, either way he's still going to make $147 million.
I get the feeling that the Greinke signing will end up not working as well as the Dodgers and their fans would like. And I'm afraid of seeing articles like this, about Greinke, from ESPN.com's Mark Saxon at MLB's winter meetings:Again I love how much the Dodgers are willing to spend. However I wish that there was a system in place where a team could have more confidence in getting out of their deal, like the NFL system. With his contract, Greinke is going to get $147 no matter how he performs. He could win 120 games or he could win 10 games, either way he's still going to make $147 million.
One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they're willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.
In other words Uribe has been paid $14 million dollars for hitting less than .200 in his two seasons as a Dodger. Obviously they don't want to pay him $7 million for not breaking the Mendoza line in batting.
At this point this is how I see the big Dodgers contracts ending up. These are the Dodgers players that have the best chance living up to their contracts. I hate to say that any player can actually live up to such humongous contracts.
Matt Kemp has as good of a chance as anyone full his contract to a large extent, as long as he can avoid the injury bug. The Dodgers were a completely different team when Kemp wasn't in the lineup last season.
Clayton Kershaw should also come close to living up to his contract. He's won one Cy Young award and came close on another one. He also has been relatively injury free and still is only 25 years old. The Dodgers, and all of the MLB, know what the Dodgers have in him. I have more faith that Kershaw will live up to his contract than Greinke.
Zack Greinke: He's a proven pitcher and finished with a 15-5 record last season. He also previously has won a Cy Young award.
Questionable if these Dodgers players will live up to their contracts:
Andre Ethier: When his contract is over, I believe it will show that he was wildly overpaid.
Adrian Gonzalez: I highly doubt he'll come very lose to living up to his contract. I was excited when the Dodgers first traded for him. However after seeing how ineffective he was at the plate after the trade, I now have major doubts. He hit 3 home runs in a 145 Dodger at bats last season. Obviously that amount doesn't justify his huge contract.
Hyun-jin Ryu: What do the Dodgers really know about him? Will he be the next injury prone, wildly overpaid player like Daisuke Matsuzaka? Or will be a solid pitcher like Yu Darvish, although Darvish only pitched for a year in MLB. Ryu's goals are to finish about as well as Chan Ho Park did, I would be good with that.
Yasiel Puig: The Dodgers signed the former Cuban player to a 7 year-$42 million dollar contract earlier this year. He's coming off of surgery. And a lot like Ryu, the Dodgers won't know what they got until he's played for a couple of years in MLB. Although there's no guarantee that he'll make it to MLB.
Hanley Ramirez had a decent rest of his season after he landed with the Dodgers. He had some big hits, although he didn't quite live up to his contract. Although with him and all these other players will they do better with a full spring training with LA?
Brandon League: He's the Dodgers closer. Some people are floating the possibility that the Dodgers could win 110 games next season. With the way the Dodgers are built, League should average 50 saves over the next 3 years. If League does that he'll easily have lived up to his contract. However I'd be shocked if he earns 150 saves over the next 3 seasons.
Doubtful:
Josh Beckett: A veteran pitcher who has come up big in the playoffs in the past. However what does he have left? I expect the Dodgers will be very happy to see this contract expire in 2014.
Carl Crawford: He's recovering from Tommy John surgery and somehow the Red Sox convinced the Dodgers to take him in the AGon trade. After signing that huge contract with Boston, he only played two seasons for them. In those two seasons he was wildly ineffective and injury prone. He only played 31 games last season before he got Tommy John surgery. The chances of the Dodgers ever recouping their money on this deal I would say is about 5%- that is if I'm being very optimistic.
Chad Billingsley: he's been too injury prone. I don't how much the Dodgers can really count on him. The Dodgers shouldn't resign until he has finished his contract.
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